Unpredictability, Probability Updating and the Three Prisoners Paradox
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper discusses the Three Prisoners paradox in the light of three different procedures for the updating of probabilities Bayesian conditioning, superconditioning and Jeffrey's rule as well as assuming the unpredictability of receipt of information by prisoner A. The formulation of the paradox in this temporal setting brings new insight to the problem and, on the other hand, the paradox is a good way to explain the different updating probability procedures and the difference between conditional probabilities and posterior distributions.
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